WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.9N 121.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, WITH A 
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH MULTIPLE 
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC, 
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 081304Z 
ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THE 
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CHINA COAST AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING 
LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS 
FROM PGTW, RJTD, RCTP AND DEMS. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
ASSESSMENT. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 081130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 081130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 080704Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 081230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
WITH A 65NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER 
WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS 
ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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