WDPN32 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 27.9N 121.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 081304Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CHINA COAST AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, RCTP AND DEMS. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 081130Z CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 081130Z CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 080704Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 081230Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH A 65NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN