WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 
018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.9N 122.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 170 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 080441Z AMSR2 
37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY 
REVEAL CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE 
EASTERN QUADRANT, WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 
IMAGE, RADAR IMAGERY AND MSI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. 
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CHINA COAST AND IS IN THE 
PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080149Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH 
SHOWED 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OBJECTIVE AND 
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED BUT A 080700Z SHIP REPORT, APPROXIMATELY 
100NM EAST-SOUTHEAST, INDICATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 26 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 080510Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 080600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 080600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 080510Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 080520Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 081600Z-081700Z
WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
WITH A 45NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER 
WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS 
ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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