WDPN32 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 27.9N 122.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 170 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 080441Z AMSR2 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT, WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE, RADAR IMAGERY AND MSI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CHINA COAST AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080149Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED BUT A 080700Z SHIP REPORT, APPROXIMATELY 100NM EAST-SOUTHEAST, INDICATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 26 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 080510Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 080600Z CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 080600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 080510Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 080520Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 081600Z-081700Z WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH A 45NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN