WDPN32 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.1N 122.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS VERIFY THAT TROPICAL STORM DANAS (05W) HAS FINISHED THE TURN TO THE WEST AND IS MAKING A RUN FOR THE CHINESE COAST. CURRENT MOMENTUM IS POINTING THE VORTEX AT ZHANTAI TOWN, BUT THE WINDFIELDS ARE BROAD ENOUGH TO BRING EFFECTS FROM TAIZHOU THROUGH PINGYANG COUNTY. THE LATEST FRAMES OF THE VISUAL ANIMATION SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM THROWS ONE LAST PUNCH. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS IMPINGEMENT OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE BUT EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT. OTHERWISE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AND TS 05W IS PEAKING JUST PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING THE DEGRADING EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MADE FOR IDENTICAL FIXES AND DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS SET JUST ABOVE THE AGENCY T2.5 DVORAKS DUE TO CIMSS OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS OF 45KTS FROM ADT, AIDT, AND SATCON. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM A 071232Z ASCAT. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF BOHAI THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA TO SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 0100Z CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 080100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM DANAS HAS ENTERED ITS TERMINAL LEG AND WILL NOT INTENSIFY ANY FURTHER DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. ONCE INLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY DECAY ALONG A SOUTHWESTWARD BEARING, DECAYING TO UNDER 25KTS WITHIN 36 HOURS FROM NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE HAZARDS ALONG THE COAST, TROPICAL STORM 05W HAS SET UP THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH STRAIGHT AND STEADY SOUTHWESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM SINGAPORE THORUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT, INDICATING A 6 TO 10 WEEK RESPITE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BASIN AND NARROWING THE POTENTIAL AREA OF FUTURE STORM GENESIS TO THE EAST CHINA AND PHILIPPINE SEAS. AS 05W TRACKS INLAND, A VERY HIGH LATITUDE MONSOON TROF WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED, WITH THE AXIS OF THE SEASONAL TROF EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN FROM NORTH OF TAIWAN THROUGH SOUTH OF OKINAWA BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 26TH LATITUDES. MODEL DISCUSSION: AT THIS LATE-STAGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALMOST BECOME A NON-FACTOR. AS PER EXPECTATION THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE RATE OF DECAY OVER LAND, SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF DECAY ALONG THE OVERLAND TRACK. IN RETROSPECT THE ECMWF-AIFS PERFORMED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL DURING THIS STORM, AND ALL GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND PERFORMED QUITE WELL, PARTICULARLY DURING THE EARLY STAGE OF THE STORM WHEN THE DIFFICULT ISSUE OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WOULD TRACK THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT OR MOVE OVER THE ISLAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN