WDPN32 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 27.8N 122.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 166 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS CONFIRMS THAT TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) IS MAKING THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARDS SHORE. THE SYSTEM IS STILL WRAPPED TIGHTLY, BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS SPORADIC AND FRAGMENTED. A 071232Z OVERHEAD SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALED THE LOP-SIDED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SCATTEROMETRY ALSO GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS WHILE AGENCY DVORAKS ARE SCATTERED BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS WITH DATA AND FINAL T'S ALL FOCUSING ON T2.5. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF WARM WATER, BUT WEAK RIDGING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND EAST CHINA SEA IS BEGINNING TO FORCE IN DRIER GRADIENT LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF DANAS HAS BEEN TO DRAG THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ALL THE WAY BEYOND THE 20TH LATITUDE, LOCKING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON AND THUS MINIMIZING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT OVER THAT BASIN. NOW ALL FOCUS CAN SHIFT TO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, WHERE A VERY HIGH LATITUDE AND FRAGMENTED MONSOON TROF STILL STRUGGLES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. TC 04W DEVELOPED AT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF WHAT WAS AT THE TIME THE DREADED REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROF, BUT THANKS TO 05W THE TROF HAS SETTLED OUT TO A STRAIGHTER WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 071232Z METOP-C. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA IS BLOCKING POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND FORCING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS LAND. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 071233Z CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 071730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: DANAS WILL RUN OUT OF ROOM FOR POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND BE NUDGED TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF CHINA BETWEEN WENZHOU AND TAIZHOU, COMING ASHORE AT LOW GALE FORCE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF TS 05W THROUGH LANDFALL, BUT IT IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO BE THE BIGGEST HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS SHORE FORCES THE WATER AHEAD OF IT. TIDAL VARIATIONS AND TIMING WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF SURGE. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT THE UPCOMING WESTWARD TURN AND STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL AND TYPICAL DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST RIDES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO ACCOMMODATE THE ECMWF AI MODEL, WHICH HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST FEW STORMS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN