WDPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.8N 122.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 166 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS CONFIRMS THAT TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) IS MAKING THE
ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARDS SHORE. THE SYSTEM IS STILL WRAPPED
TIGHTLY, BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS SPORADIC AND FRAGMENTED. A 071232Z
OVERHEAD SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALED THE LOP-SIDED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SCATTEROMETRY ALSO GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE
INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS WHILE AGENCY DVORAKS ARE SCATTERED BETWEEN 35
AND 45KTS WITH DATA AND FINAL T'S ALL FOCUSING ON T2.5. THE SYSTEM
IS TRACKING THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF WARM
WATER, BUT WEAK RIDGING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND EAST CHINA
SEA IS BEGINNING TO FORCE IN DRIER GRADIENT LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE
BIGGEST EFFECT OF DANAS HAS BEEN TO DRAG THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ALL
THE WAY BEYOND THE 20TH LATITUDE, LOCKING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON AND THUS
MINIMIZING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT OVER THAT BASIN. NOW ALL
FOCUS CAN SHIFT TO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, WHERE A VERY HIGH LATITUDE
AND FRAGMENTED MONSOON TROF STILL STRUGGLES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. TC
04W DEVELOPED AT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF WHAT WAS AT THE TIME THE
DREADED REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROF, BUT THANKS TO 05W THE TROF
HAS SETTLED OUT TO A STRAIGHTER WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 071232Z METOP-C. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA IS
BLOCKING POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND FORCING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS LAND.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 071233Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 071730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: DANAS WILL RUN OUT OF ROOM FOR POLEWARD
MOVEMENT AND BE NUDGED TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF CHINA BETWEEN
WENZHOU AND TAIZHOU, COMING ASHORE AT LOW GALE FORCE. CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY OF TS 05W THROUGH LANDFALL, BUT IT IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO BE THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS SHORE
FORCES THE WATER AHEAD OF IT. TIDAL VARIATIONS AND TIMING WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF SURGE.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT THE UPCOMING
WESTWARD TURN AND STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL AND TYPICAL
DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST RIDES JUST EQUATORWARD OF 
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO ACCOMMODATE THE ECMWF AI MODEL,
WHICH HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST FEW STORMS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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