WDPN32 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 26.8N 121.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 102 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY REORGANIZING TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DANAS) AS IT IS TRANSITING JUST NORTH OF TAIWAN, FOLLOWING AN EARLIER LANDFALL OVER THE ISLAND AND ASSOCIATED TERRAIN INTERACTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AS THE VORTEX IS YET AGAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARLY FULLY OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IDENTIFICATION AND TRACING OF THE FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW, CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE LAND INTERACTION, AS WELL AS IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING THE VORTEX RE-EMERGENCE OVER WATER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 070528Z CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 070530Z CIMSS AIDT: 69 KTS AT 070530Z CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 070717Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 070700Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND CHINA AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS HOWEVER, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE, WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, ASSUMING THE STEERING AND LEADING TS DANAS INTO LANDFALL OVER CHINA. THIS SECONDARY LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, OVER LAND, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, AS IT YET AGAIN BENEFITS FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO REACH 45-50 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24. AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL 24-36 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 90 NM AT LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 36, BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASE, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH MODELS HANDLING THE WEAKENING OF THE VORTEX FOLLOWING THE LANDFALL. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES 5-10 KTS POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION BASED ON AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE, MESOSCALE HAFS-A MODEL, AS WELL AS CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN