WDPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.8N 121.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 102 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY
REORGANIZING TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DANAS) AS IT IS TRANSITING
JUST NORTH OF TAIWAN, FOLLOWING AN EARLIER LANDFALL OVER THE ISLAND 
AND 
ASSOCIATED TERRAIN INTERACTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW
(0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. AS THE VORTEX IS YET AGAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO 
A 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARLY 
FULLY OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IDENTIFICATION AND TRACING OF THE FOCAL POINT 
OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH 
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED 
FIXES LISTED BELOW, CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
IMPACTS OF THE LAND INTERACTION, AS WELL AS IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING THE VORTEX RE-EMERGENCE OVER WATER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 070528Z
   CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 070530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 69 KTS AT 070530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 070717Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 070700Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND CHINA AND ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS HOWEVER, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE, WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, ASSUMING THE STEERING AND LEADING TS DANAS INTO LANDFALL
OVER CHINA. THIS SECONDARY LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, 
OVER LAND, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. IN TERMS OF 
INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, AS IT YET 
AGAIN BENEFITS FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO REACH 45-50 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 
24. 
AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL FULL 
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL 24-36 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 90 NM AT LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 36, BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASE, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
MODELS HANDLING THE WEAKENING OF THE VORTEX FOLLOWING THE LANDFALL.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES
5-10 KTS POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION BASED ON AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, 
INCLUDING COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE, MESOSCALE HAFS-A MODEL, AS WELL AS 
CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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