WDPN32 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.5N 121.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 25 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DANAS) WITH A VERY RAGGED AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AFTER IT QUICKLY TRAVERSED ACROSS WESTERN TAIWAN. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SPARSE, CONFINED TO A SMALL POCKET WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 05W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED WIND FIELD IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 070000Z CIMSS DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS DPRINT: 45 KTS AT 070000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. NEAR TAU 24, RIDGING WILL EXTEND OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE VORTEX, WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY WESTWARD TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. A SECOND LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 30-36. A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE REMNANT VORTEX TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. REGARDING INTENSITY, 05W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR SLIGHTLY WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRIES TO RECUPERATE AFTER ITS INITAL LANDFALL WITHIN TAIWAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR ANY CHANCES OF REINTENSIFICATION THOUGH. OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO ALMOST ENTIRELY CEASE AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN INCREASING. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL, 05W WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH AN 89 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASE AS THE WEAKENED VORTEX TRACKS OVER LAND. THE MAIN OUTLIER IS GFS, WHICH HAS THE SYSTEM TAKE A MUCH SHARPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, NEARLY BACK INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CLOSELY TO THE MAIN GROUPING OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES ON WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC (GFS BASED), WHICH REINTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM FROM TAU 12 TO 36. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN