WDPN32 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.0N 119.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 163 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY SHRINKING, 7-10 NM DIAMETER, EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DANAS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE SIGNATURE APPARENT IN THE EIR IMAGERY. TY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN COASTLINE OF TAIWAN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION - INTENSIFYING BY AT LEAST 30 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WELL ESTABLISHED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH SPIRAL BANDS EXTENDING WELL EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD OF TAIWAN. THE QUICKLY FILLING RAGGED EYE HAS A TEMPERATURE NEAR OF -30 C, WHILE SURROUNDING OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS ARE AS COLD AS -82 C. OF NOTE, JUST ONE HOUR PRIOR TO THE POSITION OF THIS WARNING, AT 061100Z, THE EYE TEMPERATURE RETURNED AN IMPRESSIVE 2.2 C, WHEN THE SYSTEM LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY UPWARD OF 100 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC SETUP, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND STRONG, SYMMETRICAL RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND IMPACT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION ON THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TY DANAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KTS IS ASSIGNED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 87 KTS AT 061101Z CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 061130Z CIMSS AIDT: 91 KTS AT 061130Z CIMSS D-MINT: 74 KTS AT 060731Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 93 KTS AT 061250Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE SYNOPTIC RIDGE IS REORIENTING ALONG A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST AXIS, IT HAS INDUCED A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK OF TY DANAS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT, TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN, NEAR THE VICINITY OF QIGU DISTRICT, WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LANDFALL, ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY OF TAIWAN, INCLUDING THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND THE XUESHAN MOUNTAIN RANGE, IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE WEAKENING OF THE CORE STRUCTURE OF TY 05W. ONCE ACROSS THE ISLAND, TY 05W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 65-70 KTS, WHILE MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAUS 24-36. THEREAFTER, STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A SECONDARY LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING, WITH FULL DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY OR PRIOR TO TAU 96. INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS ASSESSED AS MEDIUM, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MAGNITUDE OF TERRAIN-INDUCED DISRUPTION ON THE VORTEX AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF APPROXIMATELY 30 NM. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SCENARIO INVOLVING DIRECT LANDFALL OVER WESTERN TAIWAN. TRACK FORECAST SPREAD INCREASES BEYOND TAU 36, PARTICULARLY IN REGARD TO THE TIMING AND ANGLE OF THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN, AS WELL AS THE SECONDARY LANDFALL LOCATION OVER MAINLAND CHINA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN AN EXPANDED CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 150 NM AT THE EXPECTED POINT OF LANDFALL. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIR CONSENSUS, WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT TY 05W HAS ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY, FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COAMPS-TC GUIDANCE WHICH, INDICATES A MILD INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CARRIED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, PRIMARILY DUE TO POTENTIAL MODULATION FROM A TRACK SCENARIO THAT KEEPS THE CORE STRUCTURE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY SUSTAIN VORTEX INTEGRITY, DESPITE IMMINENT LAND INTERACTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN