WDPN32 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 117.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 233 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING AS FAR AS 160-170 NM AWAY FROM A FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DANAS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL DEFINED CENTER PRESENT IN A 050548Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 05-0547Z AMSR2 7KM WIND SPEED PRODUCT SHOWING A BAND OF 59-61 KTS DIRECTLY TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND UNDERNEATH THE INTENSE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER PATCH OF SIMILAR WIND SPEED CAN BE IDENTIFIED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AS WITNESSED BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 050600Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 050530Z CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 050600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 050549Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 050600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS CAUSING THE TRANSLATION SPEED TO OSCILLATE AROUND 3 KTS, WHILE THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TAIWAN STRAIT. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE NER TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND AID IN DEFINING THE TRACK OF TS DANAS. AROUND TAU 72 HOWEVER, NER WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSIT FURTHER SOUTH, WHILE THE STR TO THE NORTH BUILDS AND EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN TS 05W SHARPLY TURNING TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY MULTIPLE MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS, INCLUDING SPECIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS (FRIA, RIDE, RIPA, DTOP AND RICN), AS LONG AS THE VORTEX REMAINS OVER THE WARM STRAIT WATERS. AROUND TAU 48, ONCE TS 05W MAKES A WESTWARD TURN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING. FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS FORECAST BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 55 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, EXPANDING TO 110 NM, JUST NORTH OF THE STRAIT. ONE IMMEDIATE OUTLIER IS UKMET (EGRI) TRACKER INDICATING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AROUND TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 48, THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE THE LANDFALL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS WELL, AS WITNESSED BY STRONG AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMELINE OF INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY SPREAD, WHICH IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 40 KTS, EXCLUDING THE RI AIDS. THE TIMELINE OF DISSIPATION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING INTENSITY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AT OR BEFORE TAU 96, FOR ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. OVERALL GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ITS IMPACT ON INTENSIFICATION RATE IN RELATION TO ANY POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN OR NEAR THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THEREFORE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN