WDPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4N 111.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 234 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH RECENTLY DEVELOPED OBSCURATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BELONGING TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 03W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW-LEVEL TURNING PRESENT IN
THE EIR IMAGERY, WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE, AS
WELL AS A COMBINATION OF FIXES AND AIDS LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 24 KTS AT 251400Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 251800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT 
TRACK 
FORECAST CLIPS THE EASTERN PORTION OF HAINAN ISLAND, JUST EAST OF 
HAIKOU, FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL OVER THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AROUND TAU 12. 
AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATION OVER LAND, WITH 
WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 15 NM BY TAU 12,
EXPANDING TO 90 NM AROUND THE TIME OF DISSIPATION. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS PREDICTING SUSTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE INITIAL 12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. JTWC
FORECAST FOR TD 03W CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BOTH
IN THE CASE OF TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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