WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.2N 112.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 217 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALLOWS FOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO HAVE SUPPORTED GROWING
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND A 251028Z
WSFM MWI 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALING THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON 251321Z METOP-C ASCAT DATA REVEALS 25KT WINDS TO NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 251130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD, TD 03W WILL MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
TAU 24 ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, AND WEAKEN BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TD 03W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 IS 60NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WIL MAINTAIN 25-30KTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
LANDFALL. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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