WDPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.0S 137.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 463 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
SLOWLY SEPARATING FROM THE BULK OF CONVECTION. THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, SHOWING THE
MAJOR TILT IN THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ANALYZED
TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SOUTH OF DOLOK
ISLAND WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS STATIONARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. GALES ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM, CLOSER TO WHERE THE CONVECTION IS AT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 32P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE 111204Z METOP-C
ASCAT DATA, AGENCY DVORAK FIXES, AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 111204Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 111730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 111730Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 32 KTS AT 111800Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 28 KTS AT 111622Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SIGNIFICANT VORTEX TILT.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 32P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KTS.
ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL WORSEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS
FOR THE WEAKENING OF THE VORTEX. AS A RESULT, DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 24. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 AND MINIMAL
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MAINTAINING
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE GFS AND HAFS-A BOTH SUGGEST
WEAKENING STARTING AT TAU 0. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS 
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
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