WDPS31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.3S 138.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32P, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING AND PERSISTING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION, DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-11 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT THROUGH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON EIR IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A 111204Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KT WIND BARBS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 111130Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 111130Z CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 110839Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 111230Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 32P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AS WELL AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE FLOW. AS THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TC 32P IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE AWAY, RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SIMULTANEOUSLY, DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE CORE OF THE TC, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING. DISSIPATION OF TC 32P IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROJECTED TRACK, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF UP TO 25 NM. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TRANSLATION SPEED, AS WELL AS THE TIMELINE OF THE WESTWARD TURN, AS EVIDENCED BY A 70 NM ALONG- TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS, AS THE ALONG- TRACK SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY FAIR ALIGNMENT AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS, HAFS, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC PREDICT A STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS, STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MAINTAIN WARNING-LEVEL INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION SOON AFTER. MOST ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE WEAKENING BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN