WDXS31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.8S 122.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 246 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CORE AND OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 142156Z WSF-M 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 33 TO 37 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBTK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 150010Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 150010Z CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 150030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: VERY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: NEAR-RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TC 29S WILL SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 29S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 48. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL ENVELOP THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC 29S EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48 TOWARD NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 35-45 KNOTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48, WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR SPREAD LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN