WDXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (TWENTYEIGHT) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 123.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 205 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS FULLY OBSCURED BY A SYMMETRICAL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. EARLIER ANIMATED MSI SHOWED THE LLCC
BRIEFLY POPPED OUT INTO THE CLEAR AIR, ONLY TO QUICKLY TUCK BACK
UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE AREA IS QUITE ROBUST,
WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING -90C
IN MANY LOCATIONS AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THE INNER
CORE. A 280509Z AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WEAK
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDING
FEATURES IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROTATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HEDGED TOWARDS THE ADT ESTIMATE
BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH WARM SSTS (AND EVEN WARMER CLOSER
TO THE COAST), LOW WIND SHEAR AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 38 KTS AT 280540Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 280540Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 280510Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 280600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE DEEP RIDGE TO THE EAST, THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE KINGFISHER ISLANDS
AROUND TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARD TRACK FURTHER INLAND. DUE TO
THE VERY WARM (32C) WATERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, AND
DECREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY A BIT
FURTHER PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TO A PEAK BETWEEN 45-50 KNOTS. ONCE
INLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES,
WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS FOR THE MOST PART
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE TRACKERS CONFINED TO A
TIGHT ENVELOPE GENERALLY CENTERED ON THE JTWC TRACK. THE ONLY
OUTLIERS, WHICH OUTLINE A LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO, ARE THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN THE EGRR DETERMINISTIC TRACKER, BOTH OF WHICH TAKE
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE KING SOUND BEFORE A LANDFALL NEAR
DERBY. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWING A
BURST OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS INSIST ON A WEAKENING THROUGH LANDFALL, WHICH
BASED ON THE RECENT SATELLITE CHANGES, APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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