WDXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (TWENTYEIGHT) 
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 123.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 242 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
A PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FLARING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MANAGED TO GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO TROPICAL STORM 28S. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LLCC HAS TUCKED UNDER BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION. A
272200Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. MORE RECENTLY, 280030Z
METOP-B 25-KM RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA CONFIRMED THE WIND FIELD HAS
ACCELERATED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITH A SWATH OF 30-35 KTS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING EQUATORWARD OF
AUSTRALIA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: IMMINENT LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 28S HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD BUT WILL
BEGIN CURVING TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 12. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUPPORTIVE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH AN
EXPECTED SYSTEM PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD TRACK WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO A LANDFALL
LOCATION NEAR THE YULE ENTRANCE OF THE WALCOTT INLET AROUND TAU 18.
AS TS 28S APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA,
LAND INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY DECAY THE VORTEX TO THE POINT OF
DISSIPATION OVER LAND, COMPLETING BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DUE TO
THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF PLAY AVAILABLE FOR THIS SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM.
ABOUT HALF OF THE INTENSITY AIDS HOLD THE PEAK AT TAU 0, WHERE THE
OTHERS INDICATE A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD AVAILABLE
ONLY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, ALL INDICATORS ARE IN SHARED
AGREEMENT FOR RAPID DECAY DUE TO LANDFALL. THE LATERAL TRACK
VARIANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TAU 12 POSITION, BUT
NOTABLY, SOME OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY IN
ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. OVERALL, THE JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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