WDXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.6S 43.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) MAINTAINING A STEADY INTENSITY AS
SHORT-LIVED AND FLARING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAP INTO THE SYSTEMS WESTERN FLANK.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FRAGMENTED WITH RELATIVELY MINIMAL
ORGANIZATION, AN EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS
REVEALED A LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE-FEATURE. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
SUSTAINED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF OVER 30
KNOTS HAS CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTION FREE, EVIDENT BY OBSERVABLE LOW-LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
AND A SHARP BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES
OF PRESENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ALOFT, A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED INTENSITIES AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
EQUATORWARD-EXTENDING LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSISTS IN THE SOUTHWARD
OUTFLOW MECHANISM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 141630Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 141534Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 141830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) IS FORECASTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TC JUDE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, SOUTH OF TOLIARA. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD AND REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TC 25S WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, TC JUDE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY MAKES LANDFALL WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING, LONGWAVE 
TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND 
REENTERS THE INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, COMPETING 
STEERING MECHANISMS WITH TWO OPPOSING SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, SUSTAINED 
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER 30 KNOTS, AND UPPER-LEVEL MID-
LATITUDE JET SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TC JUDE, THEN MAINTAIN 45 
KNOTS BY THE COMPLETION OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 43 NM. AFTER TAU
24, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO WIDEN THROUGH TAU 36 AS
COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD TRACK,
LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH REGARD
TO INTENSITY, A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 36 
HOUR PERIOD. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, CONFIDENCE 
REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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