WDXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)       
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.0S 41.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 91 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS INDICATED 
IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), WHICH DEPICTS 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH FRAGMENTED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS 
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE 
LLCC DESPITE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 140357Z SSMIS 37GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 
SST VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND, 
OFFSETTING THE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY VWS. TC 25S 
PASSED OVER EUROPA ISLAND (61972) AT ABOUT 132300Z PRODUCING PEAK 10-
MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS, WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 988MB. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, 
WITH A TRACK LIKELY TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF TOLIARA (67161) CURRENTLY 
REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 12 KNOTS. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 
AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE 
EYE STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 140200Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 140304Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 140700Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. TC 25S WILL PEAK AT 55
KNOTS OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR BY TAU
12, WITH INCREASING (35-45 KNOTS) VWS LEADING TO A RAPIDLY DEGRADING 
ENVIRONMENT. A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE THE SYSTEM AFTER 
TAU 36 INITIATING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT), WITH TC 25S TRACKING 
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL 
COMPLETE STT BY TAU 48 AND WILL SLOW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION.         

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH INCREASING SPREAD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, WITH HAFS-A
AND HWRF INDICATING A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH.     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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