WDXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 41.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 34 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) NOW OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND PROMINENT CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. AN EYE WAS
SHORT-LIVED AND FILLED AROUND 091600Z AS THE SYSTEM STARTED A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JOG. THE VORTEX IS NOW JUST 22 NM OFF THE COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE WITH LANDFALL IMMINENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 25S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, TERRAIN
INTERACTION IS BEGINNING TO BE A FACTOR, AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
QUICKLY WORSEN IN THE COMING HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 64 KTS AT 091800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 091800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 72 KTS AT 091800Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 66 KTS AT 091900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL WEAKEN, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
WILL BUILD TO NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD. 25S
WILL ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD, TOWARD SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN 
MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 25S IS FORECAST TO MAKE 
LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BEGIN QUICKLY WEAKENING. 
TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE VORTEX THOUGH TAU 72. ONCE THE 
SYSTEM REEMERGES WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL 
IMPROVE DUE TO THE WARM WATERS, ALLOWING FOR A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE 
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT 
WITH A 130 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72, WHICH OPENS UP TO 230NM AT 
TAU 120. THE MODEL ENVELOPE HAS TIGHTENED OVERALL SINCE THE PAST 
COUPLE MODEL RUNS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THEREFORE, THE JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL 
MODELS SUGGESTING WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36, A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH 
TAU 72 AND THEN INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. HAFS-A NOTABLY KEEPS THE 
SYSTEM STRONGER THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE, DEPICTING STRONGER 
(40-45 KTS) WINDS OFFSHORE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED 
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36, SLIGHTLY LOWER 
THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN CLOSE AGAIN THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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