WDXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)       
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 43.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 163 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO 
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE 
INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 090321Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR 
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS TCB WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE 
EYE FEATURE, WHICH TYPICALLY INDICATES A 50-55 KNOT SYSTEM. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE CIMSS ADT, AIDT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEAK OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY, OUTFLOW IS ROBUST, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM 
SST VALUES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO
THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 090600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 51 KTS AT 090600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 090323Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 090600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE STR, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL 
UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE VERY WARM 
(29-30C) SST VALUES AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, 
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND, WEAKEN, AND RECURVE SOUTHWARD BY TAU 72 
AS THE STR REORIENTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR OVER LAND. HOWEVER, THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 
96, WITH REINTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM 
ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD.       
  
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, 
WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 36. DUE 
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN OVER LAND FOR A PROLONGED 
PERIOD, WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS. 
CONSEQUENTLY, THE REINTENSIFICATION PHASE COULD BE DELAYED, WITH A 
LOWER INTENSITY AT TAU 120.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN