WDXS33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)      
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.6S 49.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 780 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAGGED,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 050514Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS
A BROAD CENTER, WITH 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI AND ASCAT-B IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DEGRADE, WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SST
(23C) VALUES, AND EXTENSIVE DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 050345Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 050600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 050600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 050241Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 050600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR. TC 23S WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT 
TRACKS UNDER STRONG WESTERLIES, WITH INCREASING (35-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, COOLING SST (19-23C), AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM 
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36 AS IT 
TRACKS UNDER THE JET CORE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A 40NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN