WDXS33 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)     
WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.0S 48.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 598 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FRAGMENTED, FLARING 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLC. MSI ALSO REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF 
STRATOCUMULUS ADVECTING EQUATORWARD OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER, DRIER AIR. DESPITE THE RAGGED CORE 
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MSI, A 040452Z GMI 37GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
AS WELL AS THE CIMSS D-MINT AND D-PRINT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, 
CONSISTENT WITH THE WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 040255Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 040600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 040600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 040403Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 040530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TO 
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE 
JET TO THE SOUTH AND MARGINAL SST VALUES (25-26C). HOWEVER, TC 23S 
WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS UNDER STRONG 
WESTERLIES, WITH INCREASING (35-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING 
SST (20-23C), AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY 
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE 
JET CORE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A 60NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE 
THROUGH TAU 24, WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) SHOWING A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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