WDXS32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.8S 54.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 439 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 22S (GARANCE). MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS REMOVING ANY FLARING CONVECTION AND ACTS AGAINST THE
SUSTAINMENT OR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY,
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CORE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 010455Z METOP-B ASCAT
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 010347Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 010600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 010500Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 010433Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 010630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GARANCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING COOL WATER TO THE SOUTH, WITH SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 C. SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL 
SHIFT TO AN EVEN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW, FURTHER ERODING THE SYSTEM, 
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH 45 KTS BY TAU 24. AT THE SAME TIME THE 
SYSTEM WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AT THE END OF THE CURRENT 
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITHIN THE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 24 IS 90 NM WITH NAVGEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE TAKING A
SLIGHTLY WIDER TRACK TURN. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS 
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IN REGARD TO THE INTENSITY, JTWC FORECAST IS 
FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTING A STEADY WEAKENING 
TOWARDS THE COMPLETION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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