WDXS33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.8S 45.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 388 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROADLY
ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (HONDE) WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN IRREGULAR AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEARLY FULLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, WITH
DEEPEST LAYER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CORE. AS TC 23S IS 
CURRENTLY SLOWING DOWN AND TRANSITING BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING 
RIDGES, MORE DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING ITS CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE PRESENT IN THE 
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND 
OBJECTIVE AIDS LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 282212Z AMSR2 PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
A DEEP-LAYER SECONDARY STR OVER SOUTH AFRICA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 010348Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 010600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 58 KTS AT 010500Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 54 KTS AT 010335Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 57 KTS AT 010630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR LAYER  BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC HONDE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS VERY SLOW
MOTION FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS, AS IT SITS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER STR
OVER AFRICA AND A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TO A MORE SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT, AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES STRONGER. AROUND TAU 72
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
STRONG, BAROCLINIC LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS
OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN STEADILY, BUT VERY SLOWLY, AS
THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
OFFSET THE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED UPWELLING WILL LEAD TO PROGRESSIVELY COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), WHILE CONTINUOUS INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE
WEST WILL FURTHER ERODE THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
REGARD TO THE TRACK, WITH 130 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72 AND
ALL MODELS REFLECTING THE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HOWEVER A BIT SLOWER AND CLOSER
TO THE GUIDANCE FROM ECMWF AND GFS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND AND THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE FROM THE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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