WDXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING 
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.0S 55.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 32 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 22S MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LA
REUNION, WITH TOPOGRAPHIC INTERFERENCE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED AND LOSE THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE TO
FILL. HOWEVER, THE CORE CIRCULATION ON THE LOW-LEVELS APPEARS TO BE
RESILIENT DESPITE THE LAND INTERACTION AS DEPICTED ON RADAR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR LOOP ALONGSIDE A
280606Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING THE CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER
THE ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW
ALONGSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 280606Z METOP-C ASCAT DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 88 KTS AT 280206Z
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 280600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU
36-48, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED THE RIDGE AXIS AND CURVE IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO REDEVELOP
AFTER FULLY TRACKING OVER LA REUNION DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR IMPINGEMENT FROM THE EAST INTO THE CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 36, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO COMMENCE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 22S WILL HAVE COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BECOMING FRONTAL AND WEAKENING TO 50KTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER PASSING THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 24-36. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO 50-55KTS BY TAU 48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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