WDXS33 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) 
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.3S 42.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 216 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR), RAGGEDLY DEFINING THE BROAD HORIZONTAL
EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IS THE WEAKEST, DUE TO
PRESENT INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. DEEP
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED MOST PROMINENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE VERY BROAD, ILL-DEFINED EYE. A 271535Z SAR NRCS
IMAGE SUPPORTS THE ASSESSED POSITION, BUT IT IS ANALYZED ONLY WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE RAGGED EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A BLEND OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH RANGED BROADLY AROUND THE
ASSESSED INTENSITY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 271852Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 271800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY WHILE IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SLOW THE TRACK SPEED. AFTER
TAU 72, THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD AND FORCE THE SYSTEM TO CURVE
SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL PLATEAU AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE
TO A SLOW TRACK RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO PROVIDE A CLEAR DIRECTION OTHER THAN A
GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE IS, HOWEVER, GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FORWARD SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CLIMATOLOGICALLY SLOW. WITHIN A
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDOW, THE INTENSITY AIDS AGREE ON A FLAT LINE
FORECAST TRENDING TO A VERY GRADUAL DECLINE. A HINT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DUE TO
THE WIND FIELD ACCELERATION THAT OFTEN ACCOMPANIES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY MATCHES THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MEAN IN ALL ASPECTS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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