WDXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.0S 55.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 90 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WELL-WRAPPED, DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER WITH A RAGGED, CIRCULAR EYE
THAT IS FLUCTUATING IN SIZE AND OCCLUSION. MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE IN THAT IT FEEDS INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSERVED EYE
ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
PGTW DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 100 KTS AT 271524Z
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 271800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: BRIEF LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 12

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
FLUCTUATING CONTRACTIONS, THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY AT ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AND WILL WEAKEN IN FUTURE TAUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL 
KEEP THE PATH CONSISTENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY CURVING 
SOUTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL 
NATURALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS 22S DEPARTS THE TROPICS REGION, 
WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS, INCREASING VWS, AND AN 
INTRODUCTION TO WEAK BAROCLINICITY AFTER TAU 36. THE EARLY STAGES OF 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AND BE FULLY 
COMPLETED BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHARE VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SOUTHWARD TRACK OF
22S. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AND IS PREDICTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT OF THE MEAN
INTENSITY AID CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND CLOSELY
MATCHES THE MEAN THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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