WDXS33 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.0S 39.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 110 NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
SOMEWHAT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 261820Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUPPORTING METOP-B ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES, WITH
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A 261558Z RCM-2 SAR PASS INDICATING WINDS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 60 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA (261820Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS)

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 261800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 61 KTS AT 261700Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 261633Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 261800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE.
THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BY TAU 96, WITH THE NER
RECEDING AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDING WESTWARD AND
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, TURNING TC 23 TOWARD A
POLEWARD TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT
INTERACTION WITH TC 22S TO THE EAST WILL ALTER STORM MOTION
IN THE MEDIUM TERM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ONGOING STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER FUNCTIONING AS A LIGHT BRAKE TO
THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. AFTER TAU 24, INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH MADAGASCAR AND DECREASING
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HALT
INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, UNIVERSALLY
DEPICTING AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
CONSENSUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHARP POLEWARD TURN OR LOOPING
MOTION IN EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST STAYS THE
COURSE NEAR BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING, AND SEVERAL
PROBABILISTIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS (INCLUDING RIPA AND
FRIA) INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RI IN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CONSIDERING THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC SETUP, CONTINUED
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY EXTENDED RANGE WEAKENING ARE
CERTAIN, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND RATES OF CHANGE.
THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST ACROSS THE
BOARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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