WDPS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.5S 178.4W
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED AND AS THE COLD DENSE
OVERCAST DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
BECOME MORE INTENSE, PROVIDING ROBUST VENTILATION FOR THE SYSTEM.
THIS, EVEN AS THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO STRONG VERTICAL WINDS
SHEAR. SST REMAINS WARM AND OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT - FOR NOW -
REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT FORWARD
TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS DPNT: 72 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS DMNT: 90 KTS AT 241730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC RAE WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEERING STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS
THE VWS INCREASES EVEN MORE AND SST COOLS DOWN. ADDITIONALLY,
MID-LATITUDE COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WRAP INTO THE
CENTER. THIS COMBINED EFFECT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 36, THE TC WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND BY TAU 48, WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
PHASE AND BECOME EMBEDDED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN EXPANDED
WIND FIELD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 69NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN THE VARIATIONS IN THE
WIND FIELD, ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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