WDPS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 179.0W
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 174 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CIRCULATING CDO FEATURE HAMPERED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO ABRASION
BY THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. THE OUTFLOW IS DECENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND
IS FURTHER PRONOUNCED IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. A 23/1744Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE MAINTAINING ITS CIRCULAR
STRUCTURE DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS COMES AFTER A
23/1336 AMSR2 SAR PASS REVEALED A PEAK UPWARDS OF 90 KTS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY WERE BASED ON AGENCY FIXES, WHICH AGREED WITH THE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 231730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: BRIEF PERIOD OF LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: EMBEDDED IN THE SPCZ, TC 19P RAE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY FROM AN EARLIER PEAK DUE TO ENCOUNTERING LAND
INTERFERENCE FROM NEARBY FIJI ISLANDS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE'S
CENTER. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING RAE IS
BUILDING, WHICH IS CAUSING THE SPCZ BOUNDARY TO SHIFT POLEWARD.
ONCE TC 19P IS ABLE TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM LAND, INTENSIFICATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24. THE SOUTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH AN EVENTUAL CURVE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS
TRAJECTORY WILL MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INTERACTION WITH A TRANSIENT
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 36. TRANSITION TO A POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 48 IN THE FORM OF
SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AND COMPLETE STT BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK CONSENSUS WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE THE CONSENSUS MEAN WAS USED AS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION PERIOD
RIVALING RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN AGREED UPON PEAK AT TAU 24.
A SHARP DECLINE THEREAFTER WAS ALSO DEPICTED BY ALL AIDS. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT
WITHIN CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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