WDXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 104.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 584 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DISJOINTED CDO BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SUPPORT FROM A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
PRESSURE IS BUFFETING THE SYSTEM ON THE EAST SIDE, AS EVIDENCED BY
EXPOSED LOW CLOUD LINES. HOWEVER, THE VERTICAL STACKING OF THE
VORTEX HAS IMPROVED AND SOME DEGREE OF RADIAL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED
IN ALL DIRECTIONS. A VERY RECENT 23/1835Z AMSR2 36 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALED THE EMERGENCE OF A MICROWAVE EYE, WHICH IS AN INDICATION
OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THIS WARNING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: AUSTRALIAN HIGH TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 231730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THIS SYSTEM WILL RIDE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE AUSTRALIAN HIGH, WHICH WILL SOON BRING
IT INTO COOLER WATERS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, MODEST INTENSIFICATION
AT A NEAR-RI PACE IS EXPECTED WITH A PEAK AROUND THE TAU 24 MARK
AND A GRADUAL DECLINE AS THE CONDITIONS WORSEN. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE DRY AIR INTO THE VORTEX AND QUICKLY BEGIN ITS
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINNING AT TAU 48 AND
COMPLETING BY 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
MEAN WHICH WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SPLIT BY THE POSSIBILITY OF RI IF AN EYE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MEAN OF THE
INTENSITY AIDS AND THE HIGHER INTENSITIES POSSIBLE WITH RI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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