WDXS33 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)     
WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.9S 79.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1018 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE 161646Z ASCAT-B 25KM IMAGE 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION, INITIAL INTENSITY, AND INITIAL WIND 
RADII WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 161654Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC, WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE LIMITED AND REMAIN TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF 
CENTRAL CONVECTION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 161800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 161800Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 161800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR. COOL SST VALUES (22-
24C), HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) VWS, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT 
WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT CORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
DUE TO ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
UNDER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WHILE MAINTAINING A REGION OF GALE-FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD UNDER A STRONG HIGH BUILDING 
TO THE SOUTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A 60NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS 
AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF 
AND GFS ENSEMBLES (EPS, GEFS) INDICATES A SIMILAR SPREAD THROUGH TAU 
72, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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