WDXS33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING 
NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.1S 85.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 918 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STILL
BARREN CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THIS
IS DUE TO MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW LESS THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A QUITE DRY
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT,
PRIMARILY BASED ON A 131609Z ASCAT-B PASS THAT SHOWED WINDS OF
40-45 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, SUPPORTING A 50 KT INTENSITY
DUE TO ASCAT'S LOW BIAS AT THESE WIND SPEEDS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 131515Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS WRAPPING AROUND ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) CONTINUES TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST,
WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLOWING OF THE TRACK IS LIKELY AFTER 96
HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BEGIN TO COMPETE WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR STEERING INFLUENCE, LIKELY ULTIMATELY LEADING
TO A SLOW TURN POLEWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SMALL
CHANGES, AS 14S WILL TRACK OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23 TO
25 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WHILE STILL EMBEDDED IN
A DRY AIR MASS. DYNAMICAL MODELS SEEM TO EXPECT THAT MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A SLIGHT, BRIEF
REINTENSIFICATION IS EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME.
AFTER 72 HOURS, SLOWLY COOLING WATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH MODELS CLOSELY CLUSTERED THROUGH 5
DAYS. THE JTWC INTENSITSY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE
HAFS-A, HWRF, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS MODELS, WHICH ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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