WDXS33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 
022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 91.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 111740Z GPM GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A BROAD
AND RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, DRY AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY NEARLY
INTRUDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 111800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 111730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 54 KTS AT 111900Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 53 KTS AT 111738Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 111900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC 14S) WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS THE AXIS OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST. THE TRACK SPEED WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AS A WEAKER RIDGE TO THE WEST PROVIDES A COUNTER FORCE
SLOWING IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL STAGNATE FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BEFORE WEAKENING GRADUALLY AS
DRY AIR AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODE THE VORTEX OF THE
SYSTEM. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TAU 60,
WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONFUSED AND UNFAVORABLE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72,
ULTIMATELY LOWERING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS BY TAU
120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WILL BE
124NM BY TAU 72, AND OPEN TO 300NM BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY REFLECTS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS REFLECTING
STAGNATION IN THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN