WDXS33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 
020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 92.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 287 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST ARE INDICATIVE OF 
DRY AIR INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS, THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS MOIST AND AN 
EYEWALL APPEARS TO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTER. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 
ANIMATED EIR AND A 101823Z GPM GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A 
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED
BELOW ALONGSIDE A 101533Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTING 45-50KT
WIND SPEEDS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 101653Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 101730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 101930Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 62 KTS AT 101823Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 101930Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S WILL REMAIN IN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH WILL WIN OUT, DRIVING THE CIRCULATION IN A SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS, RESULTING IN A
PEAK OF 65KTS AT TAU 24. AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES, DRY
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 24-48 AND
START TO ENTRAIN INTO THE TC AT TAU 72, INITIATING GRADUAL
WEAKENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE UNFAVORABLY TO
20-25KTS AT TAU 96, FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO 50KTS BY TAU
120.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A
LARGER SPREAD OF INTENSITY SOLUTIONS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GFS REPRESENTS A HIGHER AMOUNT OF SHEAR, RESULTING IN
MUCH LOWER INTENSITIES WHILE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC ARE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. ONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID WAS
INITIATED, FRIA, WHICH MAY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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