WDXS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING 
NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 92.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 257 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WITH TIGHTER SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION
ENCIRCLING THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY
DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE SYSTEM
HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN WEAKER THAN THE ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST,
SUPPORTED BY THE 091553Z AND 100301Z ASCAT IMAGES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: CURRENTLY PLACED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL SOON BEGIN TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 47 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 55 KTS AT 100600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S IS FORECAST TO SOON BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST, RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO LESSENED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. A PEAK OF 70 KTS IS FORECAST FOR TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND INCREASING VWS, CAUSING WEAKENING THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF 14S WITH A STEADY SPREAD OUT TO 225 NM 
AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN WORSE AGREEMENT. FRIA (AN RI
AID) IS TRIGGERING, CONFLICTING WITH THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE,
WHICH SUGGESTS MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR
RI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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