WDXS33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 96.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 216 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURST REBUILDING OVER THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
071749Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT IMAGE REVEALING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 071819Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 071730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 072000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 42 KTS AT 071848Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 072000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAKE OVER
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DRIVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 14S WILL DIP IN THE NEAR-TERM
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO OVER OVERCOME DRY AIR
INTRODUCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
TAU 36. FOLLOWING, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY AND CONTINUOUSLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 96 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
LESSENS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU
96-120 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST, BUT OPENS TO A SPREAD OF 120NM BY TAU
72. THE MODEL SPREAD IS DUE TO VARYING INTERPRETATIONS OF HOW
SHARPLY THE INCOMING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCES THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING IN THE
NEAR-TERM, HOWEVER GFS AND HWRF ARE THE MOST DRASTIC. THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION IS CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE UNTIL TAU 96. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN