WDXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.4S 49.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH WAS USED IN AN 
EARLIER RELOCATION. A 031853Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED THE LLCC TO 
BE MORE ELONGATED THAN PREVIOUSLY KNOWN, REDUCING CENTER POSITION 
CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING 
CLOUD TOPS AS THE SYSTEM IS INCREASINGLY INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN 
TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 032118Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 040000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND PASS OVER LAND THROUGHOUT
TAU 48-60. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
RE-EMERGES OVER WATER BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 60, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AS LONG AS IT CAN MAINTAIN
ITS MOMENTUM AND THE VORTEX STRUCTURE, IT HAS POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT, GIVEN THE DIFFERING IMPACT OF THE TERRAIN ON THE WIND
FIELD AND TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX. MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS
TAKING THE TRACK WESTWARD, WITH THE OUTLIERS BEING UKMET AND GALWEM
SUGGESTING A SHARP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, WHILE GFS TAKES THE
SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH. JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGING TOWARDS
GFS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, WITH ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO MODERATELY
QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH REEMERGING
OVER WATER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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