WDXS33 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 114.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 432 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WITH VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO
THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A BROAD SWATH OF
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SYSTEM. ELEVATED
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE EXPOSED
EASTERN SECTOR. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS SEEMINGLY LESS LIKELY,
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE VWS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, AND
VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WOUND LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPOSED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE FROM A 022148Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE SHOWING
MANY 70 KNOT PIXELS WITH A SMALL PORTION OF 80-90 KNOT PIXELS IN A
SMALL AREA WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED TO BE TOO LOW TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. CIMSS ADT AND AIDT ARE CLOSER AT 72 AND 64 KTS
RESPECTIVELY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM THE MENTIONED SAR DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 030600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 030600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD, ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12, A WEAKENING TREND WILL ENSUE. THIS IS CAUSED BY A COUPLE OF
FACTORS. THE FIRST BEING THE PERSISTING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
SECOND BEING A TRACK DIRECTLY THROUGH THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY
TC 13S. AS A RESULT, 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN TO AROUND
50 KTS AT TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF 14S WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 125 NM
AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 12. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING, BUT
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A STEEPER WEAKENING TREND. HWRF IS AN OUTLIER
AFTER TAU 84, AS IT DEPICTS INTENSIFICATION VICE FURTHER WEAKENING.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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