WDXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.3S 51.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM,
POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MADAGASCAR, HAS DEEPENED AND THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST EXPANDED AS IT TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE
022133 AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS ALSO
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED CIMSS ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM SST, MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LIGHT VWS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS SUBSIDED.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 022202Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 02330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR AROUND
TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, EXIT INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AROUND TAU 60, THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL
MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE TAU 120. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY FUEL A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM; HOWEVER BY TAU 12 WILL
DROP DOWN TO 45KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL
THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, BACK
ON WATER, TC 11S WILL REGAIN INTENSITY UP TO 45KTS BY TAU 120.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT BUT WITH
A WIDE SPREAD TO 323NM AT TAU 72 AND 351NM AT TAU 120. THIS, PLUS
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
THAT CAN ALSO IMPACT THE TRACK, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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