WDXS33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 115.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 438 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE COMPACT AS IT
FORMED A BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE CYCLONE ACCELERATED SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED THE BANDING EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF (SEE BELOW) AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 
6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LIGHT VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 021513Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 021730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC TALIAH WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, 
INCREASING VWS, COOLING SST, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT 
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 103NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 198NM BY 
TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A 
DEVELOPING SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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