WDXS33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 116.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 391 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) AS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
A BANDING EYE THAT IS POPPING IN AND OUT. INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS
CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 021023Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN ANALYZED TO HAVE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FROM 30 KTS TO
60 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT 14S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING EYE IN THE
ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 021200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 46 KTS AT 021200Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 46 KTS AT 021200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 96. AROUND TAU 96, A BREAK IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE 14S TO TRACK
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 90 KTS AT TAU 24. A PEAK
INTNESITY OF 100 KTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
14S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND FROM TC 13S.
THE WEAKENING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF 14S, WITH A 105 NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 72 WHICH OPENS UP TO 190 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAR WORSE AGREEMENT. MULTIPLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS ARE TRIGGERING, BUT HWRF CONFLICTS WITH THIS
BY DEPICTING MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KTS. GFS IS
ALSO AN OUTLIER AFTER TAU 36, WITH A MUCH MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH RI AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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