WDXS33 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 116.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 482 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WITH TIGHT BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 020545Z
AMSR2 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
MENTIONED AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 020600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 020600Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 43 KTS AT 020600Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 52 KTS AT 020547Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD,
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 96. AROUND TAU
96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
STARTS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S IS
FORECAST TO NEARLY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 75
KTS. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). INTENSIFICATION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO A PEAK
OF 90 KTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND A COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY TC 13S WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF 14S WITH A 105 NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
72 WHICH OPENS UP TO 208 NM AT TAU 120. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH
ALL MODELS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK RANGING FROM 80-100
KTS. AFTER TAU 48, MODELS DIVERGE, GFS HAS A MUCH MORE GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A QUICKER WEAKENING
TREND. THE COLD WAKE THAT IS LEFT BEHIND FROM 13S MIGHT NOT BE
PICKED UP AS WELL ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. HAFS-A IN PARTICULAR DROPS
THE SYSTEM TO 30 KTS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN CLOSER TO THE
MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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