WDXS33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.7S 117.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 348 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEVELOPING
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH  CONFIDENCE BASED THE DEFINED BANDING LLC FEATURE IN THE
012224Z WSFM COLOR 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS, IS
ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, MODERATE
RADIAL, OUTFLOW, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR-2 RSS DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS, COOLING SST, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN A TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 163NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO
260NM BY TAU 120. NVGM IS THE NOTABLE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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