WDXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (SEAN) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.2S 114.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY A MORE
COMPACT COLD CENTRAL COVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM PINHOLE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PINHOLE EYE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
191031Z WSFM 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY
DVORAK AND THE AVERAGE OF AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO REFLECT
THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE 6-HR EIR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST,
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 190625Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 191130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 76 KTS AT 191130Z
   CIMSS DPNT: 50 KTS AT 191200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC SEAN WILL CONTINUE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COOLING
SST, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 99NM BY TAU 72, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT WIDER AND MORE UNEVENLY TO 484NM
WITH UEMN THE EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET UEMN. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND THE RAPID WEAKENING THAT
USUALLY FOLLOWS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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