WDXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 117.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 95 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY MORE ORGANIZED
FEEDER BANDS THAT WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS REMAINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO THE BREAKS
IN THE FRAGMENTED BANDS NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE
MSI LOOP THAT WAS CONCENTRIC WITH A DEFINED LLCC IN THE COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP FROM THE ABOM HEDLAND RADAR SITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 181130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 181130Z
   CIMSS DPNT: 39 KTS AT 181130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
STEERING STR. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST, 
INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM 
DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 142NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST; AFTERWARD,
THE MODELS SPREAD OUT WIDER AND MORE UNEVENLY TO 380NM WITH AFUM THE
EXTREME LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO THE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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