WDXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING 
NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.7S 41.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 58 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED BY EXPANDED AND DEEPENED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND THE FORMATION OF A DIMPLED EYE. THE CYCLONE HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAPPED INTO THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLED EYE FEATURE AND LINED UP WITH A
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 150514Z GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS ALSO ASSIGNED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-VALUED AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND EXTRAPOLATION.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 150530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 72 KTS AT 150530Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 58 KTS AT 150530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DIKELEDI WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THEN 
EASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, 
ENHANCED LATER BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD, 
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT 
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, REDUCING IT TO 50KTS BY TAU 72. 
CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, TC 07S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION 
(ETT) AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE 
LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 116NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED 
WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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