WDXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 39.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
EXITED BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER DRAGGING ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS. THE LAND
INTERACTION ERODED SOME OF THE CONVECTION BUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT AND WELL-DEFINED AS AN EMBEDDED CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EMBEDDED CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 140353Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS ALSO ASSIGNED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-VALUED AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES, REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION, AND
CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 140530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 58 KTS AT 140530Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 42 KTS AT 140530Z
   CIMSS DMNT: 47 KTS AT 140530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL RECURVE AND
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED LATER WITH INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BEFORE THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, REDUCING IT TO 45KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC
07S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 96,
WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 65NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU
72, THE MODEL ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHT BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. COROLLARY TO THAT, THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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