WDXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.3S 54.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKLEDI) HAS STABILIZED AT NEAR 55KTS FOR TWO
CONSECUTIVE CYCLES WITH NEARLY UNANIMOUS AGENCY FIXES COMING IN AT
T3.5. A MICROWAVE EYE IS SHOWING ON A 101750Z AMSU 89V. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT REMAINS A
LOPSIDED SYSTEM THAT HAS YET TO CONGEAL, WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT THERE IS
STILL A MEAN OF NEARLY 25KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVERAGED THROUGH
THE COLUMN. TOTAL PRECIPTIBLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM THE GRADIENT
LEVEL MOISTURE IS COCOONED FROM THE DRIER SEASONAL SOUTHEASTERLIES
TO ITS SOUTHWEST. 28 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BUT VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT VALUES EXIST ALONG 
TRACK. THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN RIDGE HAS BEEN STEERING THE SYSTEM 
STEADILY WNW AT 15 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A PARTIAL 101435Z RCM PASS AIDED THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS AND THE OTHER QUADRANTS WERE
ESTIMATED FROM THAT.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 101500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL TRACK STEADILY ALONG UNTIL IT CLIPS
THE NORTHERNMOST PROVINCE OF MADAGASCAR. GUIDANCE HAS FOCUSED A
LITTLE FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING THE
CERTAINTY OF A LAND STRIKE. ONCE CLEARING MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM
WILL CLEAR BEYOND THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
GRADUALLY BEND POLEWARD. THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM
GRAZES COASTAL MOZAMBIQUE REMAINS UNRESOLVED, BUT THE PACK OF
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS, CONTINUES TO POINT THE STORM STRAIT DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 07S WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED 
IN DEEP MOISTURE THROUGHOUT ITS TRANSIT AND AS IT ARCS OVER TOWARD 
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL NEAR 
14JAN1800Z, A POLEWARD TUG ON THE OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH WARMER WATERS 
IN THE CHANNEL WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO THE INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM WILL 
BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE 25TH LATITUDE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE
STORM'S LIFE CYCLE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION YET, BUT ONLY COAMPS-TC SUPPORTS IT. HAFS ACTUALLY STAYS
BELOW THE CONSENSUS MEAN. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT INTO THE 
CHANNEL, AND ALTHOUGH IT SPREADS IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS GOOD 
CONSENSUS THAT THE STORM STAYS IN THE CHANNEL AND DOES NOT GRAZE THE 
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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