WDXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.5S 57.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 396 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
SYSTEM WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TRANSVERSE BANDING AND ELONGATION
ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, AN INDICATION OF
ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100538Z
GPM 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSIGNED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF CLOSELY-VALUED AUTOMATED AND
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 40 KTS AT 100600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO 65KTS BY TAU
24; AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR
AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL REDUCE IT TO 50KTS BY TAU 48 AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VWS OVER THE WARM CHANNEL WILL RE-INTENSIFY
THE CYCLONE TO 65KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 160NM BY TAU 72, THEN 201NM BY TAU 120 WITH
NAVGEM THE NOTABLE LEFT OF TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER 
TAU 72.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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