WDXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 96.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 109 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
AND A SLIGHTLY RESURGENT CONVECTIVE PLUME THAT IS SHEARED TO THE 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. 272314Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE 
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF INFRARED AND 
VISIBLE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
271830Z OCEANSAT-3 DATA SHOWING 25-30 KTS WINDS, AS WELL AS AGENCY
AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TRANSITIONING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM, TO THE INFLUENCE OF AT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 280030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 280000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 280030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S HAS STARTED ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS SLOWLY
BEGINNING ITS WEAKENING PROCESS DRIVEN BY THE PERSISTENT 20-25 KTS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PROGRESSING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AS WELL AS
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS POLEWARD. TC
05S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATION BY TAU 12 AND COMPLETE THE
PROCESS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WINDS BELOW 35 KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
BOTH IN REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY LEFT
AS FAR AS TIMELINE OF THE WESTWARD TURN GOES. ALL DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION, WHILE THE REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM GET ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STR. JTWC FORECAST IS LAID IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS IN REGARD TO BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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